Gender gap plays a critical role as election looms

In the past four years, Americans have experienced a series of large-scale events and shocks to our political system.

The day after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the massive 2017 Women’s Marches brought together over a million people in the nation’s capital and 5.6 million worldwide. Just four months after he took office, Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, resulting in the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller and contentious congressional hearings. In 2019, Trump’s call with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine led to impeachment hearings, the third impeachment of a sitting president in American history, and Trump’s ultimate acquittal by the Senate.

Within weeks, Americans began to become aware of the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic. A few short months later, the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis led to massive demonstrations calling for racial justice in cities and small towns across the country.

In the middle of all this were the 2018 midterm elections, with women’s votes propelling a 41-seat gain for House Democrats and Nancy Pelosi’s comeback as speaker of the House.

These cataclysmic events have shaped voter attitudes and preferences. In each of these cases, women have reacted more quickly and more negatively to Trump than men have. A gender gap emerged early in 2020 across all approval ratings, presidential preferences and top issues.

2020 is an election year like no other for many reasons, and pollsters, pundits and academics are predicting that this election will be very different from 2016.

In response to COVID-19, many states have changed how and when people vote. The spreading virus and the intense and broad focus on racial justice — along with the increasing importance of suburban women’s vote — provide insights for understanding how the 2020 presidential race has been developing.

Democrats have framed this election as a referendum of Trump’s handling of COVID-19. Right now, the coronavirus is winning and the president is failing. Disapproval of Trump’s response to the virus emerged in late March with a consistent gender gap, ranging from 8 points to double digits, since then. The approval/disapproval for Trump a -president and Trump’s handling of the pandemic have not merely been similar; they have been virtually the same.

The amazing thing about the many election polls this year is that the overall results nationally and in battleground states have been relatively stable and consistent. Biden was leading early this year, he was leading just before the conventions, he was leading just after the conventions, and he is leading now, a day before the election.

Political strategists have been focusing on older women, suburban women, college-educated white women, women of color, “Me Too” voters, pro-choice voters, frontline workers (largely women), workers in low-wage jobs (also largely women), or unmarried women. In other words, women. Traditionally, women have decided later than men, but this year, the number of undecided voters is much smaller, about 5%.

Women are not a monolithic group. We all have shared neither life experiences nor the same privilege. We are not necessarily progressive or conservative, religious, struggling or comfortable. Yet, most women can find themselves in one or more of these clusters of females that comprise what’s often called the women’s vote.

The gender gap measures the difference in men and women’s votes for the leading candidate (in this case Biden). On average, there has been a steady gender gap in favor of Biden, with October polls showing women supporting him with a 10-point difference as compared with men.Men are either evenly divided or are voting for Trump by a few points. A strong majority of women are voting for Biden. This gap has extended to nearly all parts of the country, including the battleground states.

In Nevada, an Oct. 23-26 New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden at 49% support and Trump at 43% support among all likely voters. Forty-three percent of men said they would vote for Biden compared with 54% of women, an 11-point gender gap. Men supported Trump at 50%; for women it was 36%.

The demographic reality is that there are more women than men who are eligible to vote, more women who register to vote, and more women who do vote.

Women are the base of the Democratic Party. All year, the gender gap has played a critical role in Biden’s overall support. The internal dynamics of that lead can change but, in the end, the presidency is likely “up to the women.”